Wednesday, February 18, 2009


2009 Oscar Prediction

Last year, my Oscar prediction missed the Best Picture and Best Actress categories. I blame on Tommy Lee Jones's Southern accent in "No Country for Old Man."

Unlike last year, I have yet seen one of the best picture nominees, which somebody calls it "poverty porn."

However, based on what I know so far, I hope I can do better this year to predict the winners. I am dropping the Best Documentary Feature category because I only saw few of the nominations this year.

Best Picture

None of the five nominees are on my last year's top ten list, and I don't really have the desire to see "Slumdog Millionaire" right now either. I do enjoy "The Reader" and "Frost/Nixon" more than the rest, although I doubt that they have any chance to win.

Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should win: None of them

Best Actor

Among the five performances, the only one I have not seen is Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler," yet he has the highest expectation to win. If I were voting, there would be no doubt in my mind that Frank Langella's fascinating portrait of Nixon in "Frost/Nixon" deserves the trophy. Sean Penn ("Milk") runs up close to the second.

Will win: Mickey Rourke
Should win: Frank Langella

Best Actress

Again, only one performance I have not seen (Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"), but that doesn't matter. This is the year for Kate Winslet ("The Reader") who has been sweeping numerious awards lately. Both Melissa Leo ("Frozen River") and Meryl Streep ("Doubt") give strong performance, but Kate Winslet will finally take the award home, not only for her performance in "The Reader," but also for her performance in "Revolutionary Road" — that's what the Academy members have in mind when they cast their votes. Why isn't Sally Hawkins nominated for her lovely performance in "Happy-Go-Lucky?"

Will win: Kate Winslet
Should win: Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor

This category is completely overshadowed by the tragic death of Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight"). He is a beloved talented actor and people want to pay tribute to him. That doesn't mean that his performance doesn't deserve the award. However, given the current situation, come on, give an Oscar to him, would you? He doesn't have another chance.

Will win: Heath Ledger
Should win: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress

This category is full of impressive performances this year. Despite Penélope Cruz's ("Vicky Cristina Barcelona") winning of a few awards, I think the winner will be a tossup between Viola Davis ("Doubt") and Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"). Although I don't care about the corniness of "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Taraji P. Henson's performance as Button's adopted mother is memorable. However, my money bet on Viola Davis.

Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Anyone but Penélope Cruz

Best Director

I almost can repeat my comment about Best Picture in this category. I think Ron Howard really does a terrific job telling an gripping story in "Frost/Nixon;" as well as Gus Van Sant amazingly brings Harvey Milk back to life in "Milk."

Will win: Danny Boyle
Should win: Ron Howard or Gus Van Sant

The evenlope please...

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