Friday, February 22, 2008


Oscar prediction

I almost forgot that the Oscar ceremony is gonna be on Sunday! Last year, my prediction of winners failed in the supporting actor, supporting actress, and the documentary categories. Let me try it again this year to see how my psyche works in the year of rat.

Best Picture

I have seen all five nominations. While I enjoy "Juno" the most, I admire "There Will Be Blood" greatly. I don't know how "Michael Clayton" even gets nominated, and "Atonement" should be listed just in the best cinematography category. "No Country for Old Men" is good, but not as great as "There Will Be Blood," nor as funny as "Juno." It won't be long before "There Will Be Blood" to be included in the National Film Registry.

Will win: There Will Be Blood
Should win: There Will Be Blood

Best Actor

Unfortunately, I have not seen "Eastern Promises" and "In the Valley of Elah." However, I doubt the other performances can ever top Daniel Day-Lewis's unforgettable work in "There Will Be Blood." Aren't George Clooney and Johnny Depp just the same in any other films they are in? Plus, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" bored me to death.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress

Again, I have only seen three films in this category: "Away from Her," "La Vie en Rose (La Môme)," and "Juno." I think "Ellen Page" deserves every bit to win for playing a sharp tongue quirky pregnant teenager. However, considering Academy award voters tend to me older, she probably have to lose to "Julie Christie" who plays an Alzheimer patient.

Will win: Julie Christie
Should win: Ellen Page

Best Supporting Actor

By the time I come to this category, I realize that it's probably a bad idea for me to predict the winners this year: I only saw two performances in this category: "Michael Clayton" and "No Country for Old Men." Javier Bardem is very impressive as a cold blood killer in "No Country for Old Men." It's not hard to guess that he will win in this category.

Will win: Javier Bardem

Best Supporting Actress

Just like the Best Supporting Actor category, I saw three films in this category: "American Gangster," "Atonement," and "Michael Clayton." "Tilda Swinton" has the strongest performance among these three. Actually I wonder how Ruby Dee even gets on this list playing Denzel Washington's mom.

Will win: Tilda Swinton
Should win: Anyone but Ruby Dee

Best Director

This is the hardest to predict even I have seen all five films in this category. I would really like Julian Schnabel to win for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le Papillon)." It's remarkable to be able to imagine what it would be like when one completely paralyzes except one eye lid can move. Paul Thomas Anderson also deserves the honor for creating a master piece "There Will Be Blood." However, Coen brothers are equally competitive for "Country for Old Men." I really think it will be a toss-up among these three. But based on the other awards, I think Coen brothers will win.

Will win: Ethan Coen and Joel Coen
Should win: Julian Schnabel

Best Documentary Feature

All the five nominations have war, violence, and torture in the background, except Michael Moore takes on sick people who want to get health care. Needless to say, all of them are not pleasant to watch, even "War Dance" is somewhat inspiring with impressive camera works. "No End in Sight" is extremely intelligent and a solid documentary making. "Taxi to the Dark Side" reports its thorough investigation about the torture and prison abuse by the US government. It's shocking and thought provoking. Either film might win.

Will win: Taxi to the Dark Side.
Should win: No End in Sight.


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